🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Korona Kielce edge out Widzew Łódź 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Korona Kielce beat Widzew Łódź 1-0 at Exbud Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.23 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.90 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Widzew Łódź landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.97 / defence 0.99 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.83 / defence 0.91, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 42% | Draw 33% | Widzew Łódź 25%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 39%, Widzew Łódź 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Korona Kielce's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.27 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights