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Prediction vindicated as Korona Kielce edge out Widzew Łódź 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Korona Kielce beat Widzew Łódź 2-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.44 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.24 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.89 / defence 1.07 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 42% | Draw 26% | Widzew Łódź 33%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 36%, Widzew Łódź 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Korona Kielce's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.16 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights