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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Korona Kielce.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Raków Częstochowa beat Korona Kielce 1-4 at Exbud Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.38 xG and Raków Częstochowa 0.84 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa outscored their 0.84 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 1.00 / defence 0.75 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.96 / defence 0.86, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 48% | Draw 32% | Raków Częstochowa 21%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Raków Częstochowa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 34%, Raków Częstochowa 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Korona Kielce's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.38. That form edge translated into the three points. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights