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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Korona Kielce and Raków Częstochowa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Korona Kielce and Raków Częstochowa finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 0.88 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.27 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 1.02 / defence 0.99 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.00 / defence 0.55, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 26% | Draw 29% | Raków Częstochowa 45%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 39%, Raków Częstochowa 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Korona Kielce's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights