🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Korona Kielce run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Radomiak Radom.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Korona Kielce beat Radomiak Radom 3-0 at Exbud Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.35 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.29 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Korona Kielce beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.87 / defence 1.04 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.98 / defence 1.01, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 38% | Draw 27% | Radomiak Radom 35%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 35%, Radomiak Radom 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Korona Kielce's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.24 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights