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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 4

Kick-off

Fri 8 Aug 2025

17:00

Venue

Exbud Arena

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Korona Kielce Win

38%

Korona Kielce

2.63

27%

Draw

3.74

35%

Radomiak Radom

2.84

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.4%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.6%

Home win

0 – 1

9.2%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.35

Korona Kielce xG

Total xG

2.64

1.29

Radomiak Radom xG

38%
27%
35%
Korona KielceDrawRadomiak Radom

2.63

38%

Home win

3.74

27%

Draw

2.84

35%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

49%

Over 2.5

2.04

51%

Under 2.5

1.96

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.85

46%

BTTS No

2.17

Clean Sheet

28%

Korona Kielce

3.63

26%

Radomiak Radom

3.85

Win to Nil

10%

Korona Kielce

9.56

9%

Radomiak Radom

10.93

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.1 9.2 5.9 2.6 0.8 0.2
1 9.6 12.4 8.0 3.4 1.1 0.3
2 6.5 8.4 5.4 2.3 0.7 0.2
3 2.9 3.8 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1
4 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1
5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.349
λ Away (xG) 1.290
Total xG 2.639
League avg home goals 1.544
League avg away goals 1.274
Korona Kielce attack strength 0.868
Korona Kielce defence strength 1.037
Radomiak Radom attack strength 0.976
Radomiak Radom defence strength 1.006
Data phase Blended
Games used (H/A) 37 / 37