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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Korona Kielce.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Radomiak Radom beat Korona Kielce 1-3 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.57 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.07 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.93 / defence 0.90 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.01 / defence 1.17, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 49% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 26%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Radomiak Radom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 36%, Radomiak Radom 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Korona Kielce's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.20 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights