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Prediction vindicated as Korona Kielce edge out Puszcza Niepołomice 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Korona Kielce beat Puszcza Niepołomice 2-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.11 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.83 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Korona Kielce beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.90 / defence 0.89 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.81 / defence 0.90, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 42% | Draw 31% | Puszcza Niepołomice 27%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 35%, Puszcza Niepołomice 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Korona Kielce's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.18 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights