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Prediction vindicated as Korona Kielce edge out Pogon Szczecin 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Korona Kielce beat Pogon Szczecin 1-0 at Exbud Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.83 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.05 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Korona Kielce fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Pogon Szczecin landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 1.00 / defence 0.84 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.03 / defence 1.15, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 56% | Draw 23% | Pogon Szczecin 21%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 37%, Pogon Szczecin 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Korona Kielce's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.37 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights