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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 8

Kick-off

Sat 13 Sep 2025

13:45

Venue

Exbud Arena

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Korona Kielce Win

56%

Korona Kielce

1.79

23%

Draw

4.38

21%

Pogon Szczecin

4.66

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.8%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.3%

Home win

2 – 1

9.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.83

Korona Kielce xG

Total xG

2.88

1.05

Pogon Szczecin xG

56%
23%
21%
Korona KielceDrawPogon Szczecin

1.79

56%

Home win

4.38

23%

Draw

4.66

21%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

55%

Over 2.5

1.82

45%

Under 2.5

2.22

32%

Over 3.5

3.12

68%

Under 3.5

1.47

16%

Over 4.5

6.25

84%

Under 4.5

1.19

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.84

46%

BTTS No

2.20

Clean Sheet

35%

Korona Kielce

2.85

16%

Pogon Szczecin

6.23

Win to Nil

20%

Korona Kielce

5.11

3%

Pogon Szczecin

29.05

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.6 5.9 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.1
1 10.3 10.8 5.6 2.0 0.5 0.1
2 9.4 9.9 5.2 1.8 0.5 0.1
3 5.8 6.0 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.1
4 2.6 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.1
5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.829
λ Away (xG) 1.046
Total xG 2.875
League avg home goals 1.587
League avg away goals 1.199
Korona Kielce attack strength 1.000
Korona Kielce defence strength 0.844
Pogon Szczecin attack strength 1.033
Pogon Szczecin defence strength 1.153
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 41 / 41