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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice finished level at 1-1 at Exbud Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.48 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.26 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.97 / defence 1.00 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.12 / defence 1.06, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 41% | Draw 28% | Piast Gliwice 31%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 41%, Piast Gliwice 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Korona Kielce's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.30 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights