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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Korona Kielce cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Motor Lublin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Korona Kielce beat Motor Lublin 2-0 at Exbud Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 2.08 xG and Motor Lublin 1.28 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Motor Lublin landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.99 / defence 0.93 against Motor Lublin attack 1.07 / defence 1.29, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 55% | Draw 22% | Motor Lublin 23%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 34%, Motor Lublin 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Korona Kielce's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Motor Lublin's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.32 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights