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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 6

Kick-off

Sat 23 Aug 2025

16:30

Venue

Exbud Arena

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Korona Kielce Win

55%

Korona Kielce

1.81

22%

Draw

4.55

23%

Motor Lublin

4.42

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.6%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

9.3%

Draw

2 – 0

7.5%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.08

Korona Kielce xG

Total xG

3.36

1.28

Motor Lublin xG

55%
22%
23%
Korona KielceDrawMotor Lublin

1.81

55%

Home win

4.55

22%

Draw

4.42

23%

Away win

Goals Markets

85%

Over 1.5

1.18

15%

Under 1.5

6.67

65%

Over 2.5

1.54

35%

Under 2.5

2.86

43%

Over 3.5

2.33

57%

Under 3.5

1.75

25%

Over 4.5

4.00

75%

Under 4.5

1.33

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

64%

BTTS Yes

1.57

36%

BTTS No

2.74

Clean Sheet

28%

Korona Kielce

3.59

13%

Motor Lublin

8.00

Win to Nil

15%

Korona Kielce

6.48

3%

Motor Lublin

35.30

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.5 4.5 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1
1 7.2 9.3 5.9 2.5 0.8 0.2
2 7.5 9.6 6.1 2.6 0.8 0.2
3 5.2 6.7 4.3 1.8 0.6 0.1
4 2.7 3.5 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1
5 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.079
λ Away (xG) 1.278
Total xG 3.357
League avg home goals 1.630
League avg away goals 1.295
Korona Kielce attack strength 0.992
Korona Kielce defence strength 0.926
Motor Lublin attack strength 1.066
Motor Lublin defence strength 1.286
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 39 / 38