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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Korona Kielce edge out Motor Lublin 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Korona Kielce beat Motor Lublin 1-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.56 xG and Motor Lublin 1.47 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Motor Lublin landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.83 / defence 1.12 against Motor Lublin attack 1.15 / defence 1.30, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 39% | Draw 26% | Motor Lublin 35%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 37%, Motor Lublin 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Korona Kielce's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Motor Lublin's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Motor Lublin arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Korona Kielce winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights