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Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Korona Kielce.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa beat Korona Kielce 0-2 at Exbud Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.65 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.46 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Korona Kielce fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 1.02 / defence 0.97 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.14 / defence 1.04, drawn from 35/34 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 42% | Draw 24% | Legia Warszawa 34%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Legia Warszawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 35%, Legia Warszawa 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Korona Kielce's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.32 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights