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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Korona Kielce run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lechia Gdansk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Korona Kielce beat Lechia Gdansk 3-0 at Exbud Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.95 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.13 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Korona Kielce beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lechia Gdansk landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.95 / defence 0.76 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.23 / defence 1.37, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 56% | Draw 23% | Lechia Gdansk 21%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 35%, Lechia Gdansk 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Korona Kielce's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.40 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights