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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 10

Kick-off

Sat 27 Sep 2025

13:45

Venue

Exbud Arena

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Korona Kielce Win

56%

Korona Kielce

1.78

23%

Draw

4.37

21%

Lechia Gdansk

4.73

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.1%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.9%

Home win

1 – 0

9.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.95

Korona Kielce xG

Total xG

3.08

1.13

Lechia Gdansk xG

56%
23%
21%
Korona KielceDrawLechia Gdansk

1.78

56%

Home win

4.37

23%

Draw

4.73

21%

Away win

Goals Markets

81%

Over 1.5

1.23

19%

Under 1.5

5.26

59%

Over 2.5

1.69

41%

Under 2.5

2.44

37%

Over 3.5

2.70

63%

Under 3.5

1.59

20%

Over 4.5

5.00

80%

Under 4.5

1.25

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

59%

BTTS Yes

1.71

41%

BTTS No

2.41

Clean Sheet

32%

Korona Kielce

3.09

14%

Lechia Gdansk

7.05

Win to Nil

18%

Korona Kielce

5.52

3%

Lechia Gdansk

33.38

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.6 5.2 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1
1 9.0 10.1 5.7 2.1 0.6 0.1
2 8.7 9.9 5.6 2.1 0.6 0.1
3 5.7 6.4 3.6 1.4 0.4 0.1
4 2.8 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.2
5 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.953
λ Away (xG) 1.129
Total xG 3.082
League avg home goals 1.504
League avg away goals 1.198
Korona Kielce attack strength 0.950
Korona Kielce defence strength 0.763
Lechia Gdansk attack strength 1.234
Lechia Gdansk defence strength 1.367
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 43 / 43