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Prediction vindicated as Lech Poznan edge out Korona Kielce 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lech Poznan beat Korona Kielce 1-2 at Exbud Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.08 xG and Lech Poznan 1.18 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lech Poznan outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.91 / defence 1.10 against Lech Poznan attack 0.94 / defence 0.85, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 31% | Draw 32% | Lech Poznan 37%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 38%, Lech Poznan 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Korona Kielce's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Lech Poznan's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.36. That form edge translated into the three points. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights