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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Korona Kielce cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jagiellonia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Korona Kielce beat Jagiellonia 3-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.10 xG and Jagiellonia 1.16 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Korona Kielce beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.91 / defence 1.01 against Jagiellonia attack 0.92 / defence 0.81, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 34% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 37%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Korona Kielce win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 36%, Jagiellonia 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Korona Kielce's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Jagiellonia's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Korona Kielce winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights