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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 30

Kick-off

Sun 27 Apr 2025

11:15

Venue

Stadion Miejski

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Jagiellonia Win

34%

Korona Kielce

2.92

29%

Draw

3.48

37%

Jagiellonia

2.70

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.3%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

12.1%

Away win

1 – 0

11.5%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.10

Korona Kielce xG

Total xG

2.25

1.16

Jagiellonia xG

34%
29%
37%
Korona KielceDrawJagiellonia

2.92

34%

Home win

3.48

29%

Draw

2.70

37%

Away win

Goals Markets

66%

Over 1.5

1.52

34%

Under 1.5

2.94

39%

Over 2.5

2.56

61%

Under 2.5

1.64

19%

Over 3.5

5.26

81%

Under 3.5

1.23

8%

Over 4.5

12.50

92%

Under 4.5

1.09

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

46%

BTTS Yes

2.19

54%

BTTS No

1.84

Clean Sheet

32%

Korona Kielce

3.17

33%

Jagiellonia

3.00

Win to Nil

11%

Korona Kielce

9.28

12%

Jagiellonia

8.07

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10.5 12.1 7.0 2.7 0.8 0.2
1 11.5 13.3 7.7 3.0 0.9 0.2
2 6.3 7.3 4.2 1.6 0.5 0.1
3 2.3 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.2
4 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2
5 0.1 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.097
λ Away (xG) 1.155
Total xG 2.252
League avg home goals 1.493
League avg away goals 1.244
Korona Kielce attack strength 0.908
Korona Kielce defence strength 1.010
Jagiellonia attack strength 0.919
Jagiellonia defence strength 0.809
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 63 / 63