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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Korona Kielce run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Arka Gdynia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Korona Kielce beat Arka Gdynia 3-0 at Exbud Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.73 xG and Arka Gdynia 1.08 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Korona Kielce beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Arka Gdynia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.95 / defence 1.14 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.84 / defence 1.30, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 52% | Draw 25% | Arka Gdynia 23%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 44%, Arka Gdynia 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Korona Kielce's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.32 PPG, Arka Gdynia 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights