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Zaglebie Lubin cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jagiellonia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zaglebie Lubin beat Jagiellonia 1-3 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.69 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.84 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin outscored their 0.84 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.25 / defence 0.82 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.85 / defence 0.91, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 57% | Draw 24% | Zaglebie Lubin 18%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Zaglebie Lubin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 66%, Zaglebie Lubin 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jagiellonia's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Zaglebie Lubin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights