Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wisla Krakow make the trip to Chorten Arena to face Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 March 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia at Chorten Arena this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Wisla Krakow (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wisla Krakow have gone 0W 3D 4L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.43 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.50 for Wisla Krakow. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jagiellonia lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2026, ended 0–2 with Wisla Krakow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Wisla Krakow — key trading statistics (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 54% and Wisla Krakow 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 54% | Wisla Krakow 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.51 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.859 / defence 1.109 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.812 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.316. Data: 46 Jagiellonia games / 13 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 42% | Draw 31% | Wisla Krakow 27%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Wisla Krakow 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 50% | Wisla Krakow 71% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 42% | Draw 31% | Wisla Krakow 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Jagiellonia 1.51 / Wisla Krakow 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 0.859 / def 1.109 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.812 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Wisla Krakow xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Chorten Arena.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 42% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow?
Record (3 meetings): Jagiellonia 1W | Draws 1 | Wisla Krakow 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Wisla Krakow's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Wisla Krakow's attack (0.81x) against Jagiellonia's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 46/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
42%
2.38
31%
3.26
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.69
1.18
Wisla Krakow xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
6%
16.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.18 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jagiellonia's recent record stands at 7W 0D 6L from 13 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 4L across 13 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.62 for Wisla Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jagiellonia have managed 4W 0D 3L from 7 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Krakow's away record stands at 0W 3D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.43 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Krakow's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 1.54 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Wisla Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 7W 0D 6L in their last 13 games (1.62 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.71 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Jagiellonia
1
Draws
1
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow?
From 3 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 1, Wisla Krakow have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Wisla Krakow 2-0 Jagiellonia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 43%, Wisla Krakow 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Jagiellonia) and 57% (Wisla Krakow).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Wisla Krakow in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Wisla Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Jagiellonia's games and 71% of Wisla Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 57% of Wisla Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.