🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Raków Częstochowa defy the odds to beat Jagiellonia 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Raków Częstochowa beat Jagiellonia 1-2 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.95 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.07 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Raków Częstochowa outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.31 / defence 1.04 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.87 / defence 0.90, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 57% | Draw 24% | Raków Częstochowa 20%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Raków Częstochowa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 54%, Raków Częstochowa 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jagiellonia's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.85 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights