Jagiellonia vs Radomiak Radom – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Jagiellonia (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jagiellonia face Radomiak Radom.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Radomiak Radom make the trip to Chorten Arena to face Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Jagiellonia have posted 4W 1D 5L at Chorten Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Radomiak Radom have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Jagiellonia's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Radomiak Radom's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Jagiellonia, who have won 5 of the last 10 meetings against Radomiak Radom — a 4D 1W return for the visitors.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Jagiellonia and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading

Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 65% and Radomiak Radom 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 65% | Radomiak Radom 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.97 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.920 / defence 1.217 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.791 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.394 — this is suppressing Jagiellonia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Jagiellonia games / 44 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 51% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 22%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Radomiak Radom 4.55. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 60% | Radomiak Radom 50% BTTS from recent games.

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