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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia encounter.

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Analysis

Jagiellonia make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego to face Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Cracovia Krakow (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cracovia Krakow haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Jagiellonia have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jagiellonia haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Jagiellonia away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

On a straight form reading, Jagiellonia are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cracovia Krakow lead 4W to 2W over the last 10 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 50% versus Jagiellonia 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 47% | Jagiellonia 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.15 xG and Jagiellonia 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.872 / defence 0.973 | Jagiellonia attack 1.109 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Cracovia Krakow games / 34 Jagiellonia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 33% | Draw 30% | Jagiellonia 38%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Jagiellonia 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

Cracovia Krakow dominate the H2H record, yet Jagiellonia are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Jagiellonia at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Cracovia Krakow 70% | Jagiellonia 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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