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Prediction vindicated as Jagiellonia edge out Pogon Szczecin 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jagiellonia beat Pogon Szczecin 3-2 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.34 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.19 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.02 / defence 1.16 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 39% | Draw 30% | Pogon Szczecin 31%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 58%, Pogon Szczecin 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jagiellonia's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.67 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights