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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 34, as Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.82 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.43 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.08 / defence 0.99 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.16 / defence 1.07, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 47% | Draw 23% | Pogon Szczecin 30%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 66%, Pogon Szczecin 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jagiellonia's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.84 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights