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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Nieciecza run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Jagiellonia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nieciecza beat Jagiellonia 0-4 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.87 xG and Nieciecza 1.05 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Nieciecza outscored their 1.05 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.01 / defence 0.96 against Nieciecza attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 23% | Nieciecza 20%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Nieciecza win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights