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Dominant Jagiellonia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Motor Lublin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jagiellonia beat Motor Lublin 3-0 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 2.61 xG and Motor Lublin 1.12 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Motor Lublin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.46 / defence 1.01 against Motor Lublin attack 1.02 / defence 1.27, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 69% | Draw 17% | Motor Lublin 14%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 55%, Motor Lublin 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jagiellonia's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Motor Lublin's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.45. That form edge translated into the three points. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights