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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 23, as Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.97 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.14 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Legia Warszawa outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.30 / defence 1.00 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.99 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 24% | Legia Warszawa 20%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 54%, Legia Warszawa 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jagiellonia's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights