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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jagiellonia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lechia Gdansk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jagiellonia beat Lechia Gdansk 2-0 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 2.89 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.89 xG, a combined 4.78. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Lechia Gdansk landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.28 / defence 1.30 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.16 / defence 1.41, drawn from 38/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 59% | Draw 17% | Lechia Gdansk 24%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 86%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 70% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 80% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 55%, Lechia Gdansk 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jagiellonia's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights