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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 27

Kick-off

Sat 4 Apr 2026

19:15

Venue

Chorten Arena

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Jagiellonia Win

37%

Jagiellonia

2.68

28%

Draw

3.59

35%

Lech Poznan

2.86

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.3%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.3%

Home win

0 – 1

9.0%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.37

Jagiellonia xG

Total xG

2.69

1.32

Lech Poznan xG

37%
28%
35%
JagielloniaDrawLech Poznan

2.68

37%

Home win

3.59

28%

Draw

2.86

35%

Away win

Goals Markets

75%

Over 1.5

1.33

25%

Under 1.5

4.00

50%

Over 2.5

2.00

50%

Under 2.5

2.00

28%

Over 3.5

3.57

72%

Under 3.5

1.39

14%

Over 4.5

7.14

86%

Under 4.5

1.16

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

56%

BTTS Yes

1.80

44%

BTTS No

2.25

Clean Sheet

27%

Jagiellonia

3.74

25%

Lech Poznan

3.94

Win to Nil

10%

Jagiellonia

10.04

9%

Lech Poznan

11.27

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.8 9.0 5.9 2.6 0.9 0.2
1 9.3 12.3 8.1 3.6 1.2 0.3
2 6.4 8.4 5.5 2.4 0.8 0.2
3 2.9 3.8 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1
4 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1
5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.370
λ Away (xG) 1.319
Total xG 2.689
League avg home goals 1.424
League avg away goals 1.094
Jagiellonia attack strength 1.166
Jagiellonia defence strength 1.195
Lech Poznan attack strength 1.010
Lech Poznan defence strength 0.825
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 60 / 60