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Prediction vindicated as Jagiellonia edge out Lech Poznan 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jagiellonia beat Lech Poznan 2-1 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.48 xG and Lech Poznan 0.95 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.32 / defence 0.79 against Lech Poznan attack 1.00 / defence 0.78, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 50% | Draw 26% | Lech Poznan 24%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 69%, Lech Poznan 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jagiellonia's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Lech Poznan's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.91 PPG, Lech Poznan 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights