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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 25

Kick-off

Sun 16 Mar 2025

19:15

Venue

Chorten Arena

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Jagiellonia Win

50%

Jagiellonia

2.02

26%

Draw

3.81

24%

Lech Poznan

4.12

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

13.0%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

12.4%

Draw

2 – 0

9.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.48

Jagiellonia xG

Total xG

2.44

0.95

Lech Poznan xG

50%
26%
24%
JagielloniaDrawLech Poznan

2.02

50%

Home win

3.81

26%

Draw

4.12

24%

Away win

Goals Markets

70%

Over 1.5

1.43

30%

Under 1.5

3.33

44%

Over 2.5

2.27

56%

Under 2.5

1.79

23%

Over 3.5

4.35

77%

Under 3.5

1.30

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

47%

BTTS Yes

2.11

53%

BTTS No

1.90

Clean Sheet

39%

Jagiellonia

2.59

23%

Lech Poznan

4.41

Win to Nil

19%

Jagiellonia

5.24

6%

Lech Poznan

18.16

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.8 8.3 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.1
1 13.0 12.4 5.9 1.9 0.4 0.1
2 9.6 9.2 4.4 1.4 0.3 0.1
3 4.8 4.5 2.2 0.7 0.2
4 1.8 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1
5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.483
λ Away (xG) 0.953
Total xG 2.436
League avg home goals 1.445
League avg away goals 1.202
Jagiellonia attack strength 1.316
Jagiellonia defence strength 0.789
Lech Poznan attack strength 1.005
Lech Poznan defence strength 0.779
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 58 / 58