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Jagiellonia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Korona Kielce.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jagiellonia beat Korona Kielce 3-1 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.48 xG and Korona Kielce 1.16 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.17 / defence 1.09 against Korona Kielce attack 0.88 / defence 0.80, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 44% | Draw 27% | Korona Kielce 29%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 51%, Korona Kielce 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jagiellonia's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Korona Kielce's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.84 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights