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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 11

Kick-off

Sun 5 Oct 2025

11:15

Venue

Chorten Arena

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Jagiellonia Win

44%

Jagiellonia

2.29

27%

Draw

3.67

29%

Korona Kielce

3.44

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.3%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.6%

Home win

2 – 1

9.1%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.48

Jagiellonia xG

Total xG

2.64

1.16

Korona Kielce xG

44%
27%
29%
JagielloniaDrawKorona Kielce

2.29

44%

Home win

3.67

27%

Draw

3.44

29%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

49%

Over 2.5

2.04

51%

Under 2.5

1.96

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.86

46%

BTTS No

2.16

Clean Sheet

31%

Jagiellonia

3.19

23%

Korona Kielce

4.38

Win to Nil

14%

Jagiellonia

7.31

7%

Korona Kielce

15.07

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.2 8.3 4.8 1.9 0.5 0.1
1 10.6 12.3 7.1 2.8 0.8 0.2
2 7.8 9.1 5.3 2.0 0.6 0.1
3 3.8 4.5 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.1
4 1.4 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1
5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.477
λ Away (xG) 1.161
Total xG 2.638
League avg home goals 1.586
League avg away goals 1.214
Jagiellonia attack strength 1.165
Jagiellonia defence strength 1.089
Korona Kielce attack strength 0.878
Korona Kielce defence strength 0.799
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 43 / 44