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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 10

Kick-off

Sat 10 Oct 2026

17:00

Venue

Chorten Arena

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

NS

Most Likely Outcome

Jagiellonia Win

42%

Jagiellonia

2.37

29%

Draw

3.43

29%

Gornik Zabrze

3.49

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.8%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.9%

Home win

0 – 1

9.5%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.36

Jagiellonia xG

Total xG

2.43

1.08

Gornik Zabrze xG

42%
29%
29%
JagielloniaDrawGornik Zabrze

2.37

42%

Home win

3.43

29%

Draw

3.49

29%

Away win

Goals Markets

70%

Over 1.5

1.43

30%

Under 1.5

3.33

44%

Over 2.5

2.27

56%

Under 2.5

1.79

23%

Over 3.5

4.35

77%

Under 3.5

1.30

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

50%

BTTS Yes

2.00

50%

BTTS No

2.00

Clean Sheet

34%

Jagiellonia

2.93

26%

Gornik Zabrze

3.88

Win to Nil

14%

Jagiellonia

6.96

7%

Gornik Zabrze

13.53

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.8 9.5 5.1 1.8 0.5 0.1
1 11.9 12.8 6.9 2.5 0.7 0.1
2 8.1 8.7 4.7 1.7 0.5 0.1
3 3.7 3.9 2.1 0.8 0.2
4 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.356
λ Away (xG) 1.076
Total xG 2.432
League avg home goals 1.527
League avg away goals 1.160
Jagiellonia attack strength 1.043
Jagiellonia defence strength 1.030
Gornik Zabrze attack strength 0.901
Gornik Zabrze defence strength 0.852
Data phase PrevSeason
Games used (H/A) 34 / 34