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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Jagiellonia edge out GKS Katowice 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jagiellonia beat GKS Katowice 2-1 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.51 xG and GKS Katowice 1.41 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.21 / defence 1.12 against GKS Katowice attack 1.09 / defence 0.89, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 39% | Draw 27% | GKS Katowice 34%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 57%, GKS Katowice 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jagiellonia's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

GKS Katowice's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.71 PPG, GKS Katowice 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights