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Prediction vindicated as Jagiellonia edge out GKS Katowice 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jagiellonia beat GKS Katowice 1-0 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 2.62 xG and GKS Katowice 1.22 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jagiellonia fell 1.6 short of their projected output. GKS Katowice landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.49 / defence 0.89 against GKS Katowice attack 1.18 / defence 1.28, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 67% | Draw 17% | GKS Katowice 16%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 59%, GKS Katowice 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jagiellonia's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

GKS Katowice's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights