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Dominant Jagiellonia run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Arka Gdynia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jagiellonia beat Arka Gdynia 4-0 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 2.56 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.66 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.26 / defence 1.06 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.49 / defence 1.26, drawn from 44/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 78% | Draw 15% | Arka Gdynia 7%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 78%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 54%, Arka Gdynia 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jagiellonia's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights