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Dominant Gornik Zabrze run riot with a 6-2 hammering of Radomiak Radom.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gornik Zabrze beat Radomiak Radom 6-2 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.34 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.80 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze beat their projection by 4.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.02 / defence 0.88 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.78 / defence 0.96, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 48% | Draw 31% | Radomiak Radom 21%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 45%, Radomiak Radom 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.49 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights