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Prediction vindicated as Gornik Zabrze edge out Radomiak Radom 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gornik Zabrze beat Radomiak Radom 3-2 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.71 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.89 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.85 / defence 1.22, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 56% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 19%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 46%, Radomiak Radom 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Gornik Zabrze arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights