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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gornik Zabrze and Puszcza Niepołomice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 19, as Gornik Zabrze and Puszcza Niepołomice drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.40 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.81 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.01 / defence 0.93 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.75 / defence 0.98, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 50% | Draw 29% | Puszcza Niepołomice 21%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 46%, Puszcza Niepołomice 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Gornik Zabrze arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights