Gornik Zabrze 0-0 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Legia Warszawa travel to Arena Zabrze to take on Gornik Zabrze. The game is scheduled for Friday 30 October 2026, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Gornik Zabrze have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze at Arena Zabrze this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gornik Zabrze 2.10 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gornik Zabrze register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Legia Warszawa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Legia Warszawa have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 9 encounters against Gornik Zabrze's 1 victories.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Legia Warszawa have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Gornik Zabrze trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 56% versus Legia Warszawa 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 50% | Legia Warszawa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.41 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.080 / defence 1.010 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.123 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.281. Data: 46 Gornik Zabrze games / 46 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 34% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 36%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Legia Warszawa 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 70% | Legia Warszawa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Arena Zabrze • Kick-off: Friday 30 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 34% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.41 / Legia Warszawa 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.080 / def 1.010 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.123 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Legia Warszawa xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 30 October 2026 at Arena Zabrze.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Gornik Zabrze 0 - 0 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Arena Zabrze.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 34% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa?
Record (9 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 1W | Draws 3 | Legia Warszawa 5W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gornik Zabrze's attack rating (1.08) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
34%
2.93
30%
3.39
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.86
1.45
Legia Warszawa xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
8%
12.53
9%
11.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.45 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Gornik Zabrze have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 24W 11D 11L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 18W 18D 10L from 46 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gornik Zabrze on 1.80 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gornik Zabrze have posted 2.00 PPG from 22 outings (14W 2D 6L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 6W 10D 6L from 22 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.41 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 24W 11D 11L in their last 46 games (1.80 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 18W 18D 10L in their last 46 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 2.00 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 30 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Gornik Zabrze
4
Draws
5
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 1, Legia Warszawa have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 0-0 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Gornik Zabrze at 64%, Legia Warszawa at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Gornik Zabrze) and 41% (Legia Warszawa).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Gornik Zabrze's games and 73% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 41% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gornik Zabrze's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Zabrze, Regular Season - 13, as Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.41 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.45 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Legia Warszawa landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.12 / defence 0.82, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 34% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 36%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 50%, Legia Warszawa 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.80 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.