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Gornik Zabrze cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Legia Warszawa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gornik Zabrze beat Legia Warszawa 3-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.34 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.13 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.94 / defence 0.91 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.04 / defence 0.90, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 41% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 31%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 46%, Legia Warszawa 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.53 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights