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Shock result as Legia Warszawa defy the odds to beat Gornik Zabrze 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa beat Gornik Zabrze 1-2 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 2.04 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.26 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.11 / defence 0.91 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.18 / defence 1.27, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 55% | Draw 21% | Legia Warszawa 23%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Legia Warszawa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 48%, Legia Warszawa 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.55 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights