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Prediction vindicated as Gornik Zabrze edge out Lechia Gdansk 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gornik Zabrze beat Lechia Gdansk 2-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.53 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.24 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.97 / defence 0.87 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.05 / defence 1.07, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 44% | Draw 25% | Lechia Gdansk 31%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 44%, Lechia Gdansk 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.38 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights