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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 1

Kick-off

Sun 20 Jul 2025

13:45

Venue

Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Gornik Zabrze Win

44%

Gornik Zabrze

2.26

25%

Draw

3.98

31%

Lechia Gdansk

3.26

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.9%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.6%

Home win

2 – 1

9.1%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.53

Gornik Zabrze xG

Total xG

2.77

1.24

Lechia Gdansk xG

44%
25%
31%
Gornik ZabrzeDrawLechia Gdansk

2.26

44%

Home win

3.98

25%

Draw

3.26

31%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

52%

Over 2.5

1.92

48%

Under 2.5

2.08

30%

Over 3.5

3.33

70%

Under 3.5

1.43

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

56%

BTTS Yes

1.80

44%

BTTS No

2.26

Clean Sheet

29%

Gornik Zabrze

3.45

22%

Lechia Gdansk

4.64

Win to Nil

13%

Gornik Zabrze

7.81

7%

Lechia Gdansk

15.11

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.2 7.7 4.8 2.0 0.6 0.2
1 9.6 11.9 7.3 3.0 0.9 0.2
2 7.4 9.1 5.6 2.3 0.7 0.2
3 3.8 4.7 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.1
4 1.4 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.1
5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.535
λ Away (xG) 1.238
Total xG 2.773
League avg home goals 1.478
League avg away goals 1.350
Gornik Zabrze attack strength 0.968
Gornik Zabrze defence strength 0.872
Lechia Gdansk attack strength 1.051
Lechia Gdansk defence strength 1.072
Data phase PrevSeason
Games used (H/A) 34 / 34