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Prediction vindicated as Gornik Zabrze edge out Lech Poznan 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gornik Zabrze beat Lech Poznan 2-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.01 xG and Lech Poznan 0.94 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.93 / defence 0.88 against Lech Poznan attack 0.88 / defence 0.75, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 36% | Draw 31% | Lech Poznan 32%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 45%, Lech Poznan 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Lech Poznan's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.57 PPG, Lech Poznan 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights